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Because while half the internet is still shouting “the economy is finished!” from behind a cracked iPhone screen, the Drive Motor Index (DMI) has quietly smashed a record high in Q3 2025… up a chunky 7.4% year-on-year. That’s not a polite golf clap… that’s a full-blown standing ovation with vuvuzelas.
The numbers come courtesy of Drive.co.za, which released the latest DMI results and basically told the doom-and-gloom brigade to go sit in the corner and think about what they’ve done. The index… compiled by veteran economist Dr Roelof Botha… tracks twelve key indicators across the motor industry, from vehicle manufacturing and sales to exports and broader activity. In other words… it’s the full diagnostic scan, not just a quick tyre kick.
And here’s the juicy bit… the DMI is now higher than pre-Covid levels. Yes, that Covid. The one that flattened factories, emptied showrooms, and taught us all how to mute ourselves on Zoom.
Interest rates: the villain that finally left the party
For a while there, the motor sector was being throttled harder than a rental Polo on a test drive. Interest rates hit their highest levels in 15 years, and predictably, buyers went “ag nee man” and stayed home.
But then… salvation.
The first rate cut in September 2024 flipped the switch. Five more 25-basis-point cuts followed, bringing the prime rate down to 10.5% by the end of September 2025… with another nibble in Q4.
Result?
Buyers came back. New vehicle sales perked up. Used car values climbed. Exports started flexing again. And suddenly, nine out of the twelve DMI indicators were growing year-on-year. That’s not a rebound… that’s a comeback montage with dramatic music.
Add to that a flood of more affordable Chinese vehicles entering the market, and suddenly the showroom is buzzing like a boerewors stand at Loftus.
Still early days… but the engine’s warming nicely
Now before oom Koos pops a cork and buys a V8 he can’t afford… let’s be clear. The recovery is young. Covid and brutal rate hikes smashed household disposable income, and the scars are still there.
Even though the DMI has slightly outperformed South Africa’s real GDP growth since 2018, long-term growth remains muted by emerging market standards. This isn’t a victory lap yet… it’s more like leaving the pits with fresh tyres and a full tank.
Still… the direction is right. And that matters.
Exports doing their best impression of a turbo boost
One of the standout highlights?
Vehicle and component exports hit a new real-terms record in Q3 2025.
This… despite global trade uncertainty, whispered-about “Trump tariffs”, and South Africa’s somewhat leisurely transition to EVs and hybrids. Even so, automotive exports remain the third-largest contributor to South Africa’s goods export earnings.
That’s not pocket change… that’s serious, GDP-shifting muscle.
Why the DMI actually matters
The DMI exists because monthly motor stats often fight with each other like siblings in the back seat. One says sales are up, another says production is down, and suddenly nobody knows who to believe.
So Drive.co.za built a proper, long-term barometer… because the automotive industry is not just about shiny cars. It contributes 4.9% of GDP, supports around 580,000 jobs, and accounts for 17.7% of all manufacturing output.
Ignore that… and you don’t just lose cars. You lose competitiveness. Jobs. Skills.
The man behind the maths
Dr Botha, economic advisor to Drive.co.za, is no armchair analyst. With over 40 years in the game, a teaching role at Gordon Institute of Business Science, and advisory work across the financial sector, he’s seen every cycle imaginable.
Fun fact… when he’s not dissecting GDP numbers, he enjoys cricket, soccer coaching… and skydiving. Because apparently spreadsheets aren’t thrilling enough.
Bottom line?
The motor industry is back on the throttle, the DMI is flying, and South Africa’s automotive engine is humming again.
Not bad for a sector everyone wrote off…
Now… who said the economy can’t do a proper burnout?